Week 9 Locks
Current Record 25-8
Week 8 was better, but we’re still not satisfied with the results. The Bengals were a great upset pick, and the Chargers and Ravens easily took care of business. Unfortunately, Mahomes came down with the flu Sunday morning, Skyy Moore forgot how to play football, and Mecole Hardman muffed a punt with the game on the line. Denver is now 16-1 in their last 17 games against KC, sending us to 3-1 on the week. Let’s aim for 4-0 in Week 9.
3 Locks
Saints vs, Bears - Saints (-8.5)
The trade deadline was on Tuesday, and for some reason the 2-6 Chicago Bears were buyers, acquiring DL Montez Sweat from Washington. While Chicago’s front office might view this team as contenders, I see them as a last-place team that’ll be 2-7 on Monday. Although the Saints have been mediocre on offense, they boast a top 10 defense with an elite 39% defensive success rate (2nd in the NFL). For the Bears, they’ll once again be without Justin Fields, Nate Davis, Jaquan Brisker and Tremaine Edmunds. If undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent couldn’t score more than 13 points against a pedestrian LAC defense, then I don’t expect him to find much success against NO on the road. This is a great opportunity for the Saints to jump above .500 and take command of the NFC South on Sunday.
Fantasy Advice: I expect another strong game from Alvin Kamara in a positive game script. I don’t love the matchup for CHI, but hopefully DJ Moore and Roschon Johnson can produce as the Bears look to keep pace in this one.
Browns vs. Cardinals - Browns (-11.5)
This might be the first time all year that we’re selecting the weaker offense as a lock. Fortunately for CLE, while they have the 28th best offense by EPA/Play, they enter this game as the league’s best defense. With Kyler Murray set to miss yet another game, rookie Clayton Tune will make his first career start against this ferocious CLE defense that has an elite 90.6 PFF pass-rush grade. For CLE, they’ll have Deshaun Watson back from his shoulder injury, and while he hasn’t produced since returning from his suspension, it can’t get much worse for this 31st-ranked passing offense. As long as Watson plays better than Zach Wilson and Mac Jones, the Browns should have no trouble pulling away at home in Week 9.
Fantasy Advice: The CLE backfield has been difficult to predict, but I like Jerome Ford in this one. He was battling an ankle injury in Week 8 and should be fit to carry a greater workload this week. For ARI, every fantasy start is risky with Clayton Tune at QB, but hopefully McBride can build off his breakout performance last week.
Falcons vs. Vikings - Falcons (-3.5)
With Kirk Cousins tearing his Achilles, the Vikings now turn to rookie Jaren Hall as the starter this week. This is how NFL.com’s Lance Zuerlein started his prospect profile of Jaren Hall: “An undersized pocket quarterback with unimpressive arm strength.” Although Kirk Cousins receives plenty of criticism, everyone agrees this is a major downgrade for a team already missing their best player in Justin Jefferson. Funny enough, the Falcons are also missing their top WR Drake London and are turning to their backup QB this week. However, Taylor Heinicke has several years of experience and will likely be an upgrade over the struggling Desmond Ridder. After a disappointing loss to Will Levis last week, I expect ATL to bounce back at home in this one.
Fantasy Advice: For all fantasy managers, hopefully Arthur Smith leans on Bijan Robinson, who’s averaging 5.1 YPC but hasn’t received more than 14 carries since Week 2.
Upset of the Week
Texans vs. Bucs - Bucs (+3)
In a week full of exciting matchups (Chiefs vs. Dolphins, Bengals vs. Bills, Eagles vs. Cowboys), this might be the least exciting game of the week. These are two perfectly average teams squaring off on Sunday. By EPA/Play, they rank 15th (TB) and 16th (HOU) on defense, and 14th (HOU) and 18th (TB) on offense. However, the Bucs are coming off a mini-bye and trending in the right direction with star DT Vita Vea set to return to the lineup. HOU, on the other hand, is coming off a loss to the previously winless Panthers and will be without WR Robert Woods and starting RB Dameon Pierce. According to ESPN, HOU is 0-5 in their last 5 games as favorites, and they’ll slide to 0-6 on Sunday.
A final hot take on the Bucs is that they might be a little better than average, with 3 of their 4 losses coming to the Eagles, Bills and Lions. They still have a strong DL and star WRs in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. They’ve beaten their average opponents (Saints & Vikings), and I expect them to do the same against HOU.
Bonus Upset
Jets vs. Chargers - Jets (+3.5)
Coming off the ugliest victory you’ll ever see against the Giants, the Jets are primed to upset the Chargers at home on Monday night. In New Jersey this year, this Jets D has been lights out. Through 5 games at MetLife Stadium, they’ve only given up 15+ points once, and that was against Patrick Mahomes. Even in that contest, Mahomes threw 2 INTs, and this top-10 defense has limited Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts as well. On offense, Zach Wilson continues to lead the worst unit in the NFL, but they’re getting healthier. The OL might be at near full strength on Monday, with Joe Tippman and Duane Brown returning to practice, and star RB Breece Hall has finally started to command a complete workload following his ACL injury.
For the Chargers, even though the Bears made their offense look great last week, I expect them to struggle on the road here. They simply don’t have enough firepower without Mike Williams, and they’ll likely be missing Josh Palmer this week as well. Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen are great playmakers, but they won’t be enough to overcome this vaunted Jets defense. Herbert will need to rely on rookie WR Quentin Johnston, but he’ll be blanketed by Sauce Gardner on the outside.
Note: All picks are money line selections.
3 Lock Parlay - +110
4 Pick Parlay (3 Locks + Upset of the week) - +383
5 Pick Parlay (Locks, Upset, and Bonus) - +1,108
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“In a week full of exciting matchups (Chiefs vs. Dolphins, Bengals vs. Bills, Eagles vs. Cowboys), this might be the least exciting game of the week. These are two perfectly average teams squaring off on Sunday.”
Lol, this was great