Current Record 21-4
In a week full of upsets, we had a mediocre 3-2 record in Week 6. Without injuries to Justin Fields, Christian McCaffrey, and Deebo Samuel (or a missed Jake Moody FG), the Bears and 49ers probably emerge victorious, but we won’t make excuses here. Instead, let’s try to get back on track with our Week 7 locks.
3 Locks
Patriots vs. Bills - Bills (-7.5)
After struggling to escape at home against the Giants in Week 6, the Bills are once again the top lock of the week. While I expect the Bills to improve on their Week 6 performance, this pick is about the current state of the New England Patriots. This offense is not only much worse than the Tom Brady ones, but it’s incredible how the offense has declined since Mac’s promising rookie year. They currently have the worst offense in the league (-.23 EPA/Play and a 40% success rate), leading to a measly 72 points through 6 games. As a point of reference, the Bills have scored 173 points and average .158 EPA/Play (3rd best in the league). The Patriots are simply not competing on the same level as the Bills right now, and even on the road, I expect Buffalo to come away with an easy victory in Week 7.
Fantasy Advice: With Damien Harris on IR, this could be a strong game for James Cook in a positive game script. Kendrick Bourne profiles as a low-end WR 3 in PPR leagues, facing a Bills secondary that has struggled at times in recent weeks.
MIN vs. SF - SF (-7)
Although they snapped our winning streak last week, we’re rolling with SF as a lock once again in Week 7. SF’s offense struggled in the rain against Myles Garrett and the top-ranked CLE defense, but MIN’s dome and pedestrian secondary (17th in drop back EPA/play) offer a great spot for Purdy to rebound. Even if CMC and Deebo are inactive, I expect Aiyuk, Kittle, and Shanahan to light up the scoreboard on Monday night. For the Vikings, they struggled without Justin Jefferson against the Bears in Week 6 (only 1 offensive TD), and they won’t be able to keep up with SF in this one.
Fantasy Advice: If CMC and Mitchell are ruled out, it could be a good spot for Jordan Mason as SF’s lead back. For MIN, Cousins has had some very forgettable primetime games, making the MIN offense somewhat risky. Still, I like Addison’s chances to produce in this one.
KC vs. LAC - KC (-5.5)
Andy Reid has a 28-4 record coming out of a bye, and although KC played in Week 6, their TNF matchup gave them 10 days to get ready for this one. On the other side, the Chargers have a short week to prepare for Patrick Mahomes after suffering a crushing defeat on Monday Night Football (heartbroken fan here). These showdowns have been anything but locks in recent memory, with the Chiefs winning each of the last 3 matchups by fewer than 7 points. However, given LAC’s struggles in close games, I can’t imagine them upsetting KC in Arrowhead. The Chargers have lost to the Dolphins, Cowboys, and Titans by a combined 8 points this year, and it’s smart to bet on Mahomes in one-score games (39-17 one-score record). Beyond their one-score resumes, there’s a chance that the Chiefs blow them out at home. While we’re used to Mahomes and this explosive offense carrying the Chiefs, they enter Week 7 with a top-5 defense. Since Chris Jones returned from his 1-game holdout, the Chiefs are 5-0, they’ve given up 13.5 ppg, and Jones personally has 5.5 sacks. Mahomes, Reid, and the recent play of this defense all make KC a lock at home in Week 7.
Fantasy Advice: This should be another strong outing for Pacheco, as KC may look to establish the run with a lead. With Derwin James unlikely to play, Kelce is primed for a huge game as well. Keenan Allen should continue his hot stretch as LAC looks to keep pace.
Upset of the Week
PHI vs. MIA- MIA (+3)
Arguably the best team in the league with the most explosive offense is an underdog in Week 7? And they’re playing against a team that just lost to Zach Wilson? Yeah, sign me up for that upset pick.
On a more serious note, this is the game of the week, and it profiles as a true toss-up. While PHI struggled last week in NY, they expect to have Carter and Slay back in action against MIA. Even with these stars returning, PHI’s secondary will still be missing Bradley Roby and Reed Blankenship, and frankly, I don’t see how they can slow down MIA. This MIA offense is in a league of its own, dominating through both the ground and the air (chart from rbsdm.com/stats). PHI’s offense has been very reliant on AJ Brown, who has an incredible 672 yards and 12 catches of 20+ yards through 6 games. While I expect him to have another explosive night, it won’t be enough to keep up with Tyreek and the rest of the MIA track team.
Comment here with your thoughts on these picks, or if you want any other top picks for Survivor. Also, look forward to my Start/Sit thread tomorrow morning for last-minute lineup decisions. Good luck to everyone in Week 7!
Pumped about Fins-Eagles. Expect a shootout.