Current Record 18-2
We had another strong 4-0 week, with our locks (Lions, Dolphins & Chiefs) taking care of business. The Saints were the upset of the week, but they looked more like a lock in their 34-0 victory over the Pats. We also avoided the Bills, who entered their game as larger favorites than the Chiefs but were upset by the Jaguars in London.
Let’s try to extend our winning streak in Week 6.
3 Locks
Bills vs. Giants - Bills (-15)
The Bills are such a lock that a 15-point spread even seems small for this matchup. Despite BUF losing in London last week, they remain an elite team on both sides of the ball (top 3 offense and top 8 defense by EPA/play). For the Giants, outside of their miracle comeback in ARI, they have lost by 40, 18, 21, and 15. While they might have Saquon back on Sunday, they’ll be without Daniel Jones and Andrew Thomas in this one. Tyrod Taylor’s “revenge game” against his former team won’t be enough to keep NYG close, and I expect them to fall to 1-5 on the season.
Fantasy Advice: I’d feel comfortable starting most Bills, and James Cook should see more work in a positive game script; however, Murray and Harris could vulture his TDs once again. For the Giants, maybe Darren Waller can produce in garbage time, and I’d lower expectations for Saquon if he suits up.
MIA vs. CAR - MIA (-14)
MIA is 4-1 and has the best offense in football while CAR remains the only winless team in the league. Although rookie sensation De’Von Achane will miss this game, I expect Tyreek, Waddle, and Mostert to offer more than enough fire power for MIA. CAR has the worst rushing defense in the league (.156 rushing EPA/play), so when they fall behind in games, they stay behind. I expect CAR’s offense to improve as Bryce Young develops, but it’ll be tough for CAR to keep up on the road against MIA.
Fantasy Advice: With Achane out, Mostert looks like a top 10 play against this poor CAR defense. For CAR, I expect Thielen and Mingo to produce in a negative game script.
CLE vs. SF - SF (-10)
SF is one of 2 undefeated teams remaining, and I don’t expect their streak to stop on Sunday. SF has the 2nd best offense and CLE has the best defense, making for an extremely close contest on that side of the ball. However, with Deshaun Watson injured, the other side looks like a lopsided matchup in favor of SF’s defense. Without Watson in Week 4, the Browns scored only 3 points and had 3 interceptions against BAL. Although I expect new starter P.J. Walker to play better than rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson (their week 4 QB), it’ll be a tough matchup against this SF defense that just dominated DAL. Also, this Browns defense remains unproven against a top offense. They’ve done well against Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill, and a very limited Joe Burrow, but I don’t see them shutting down this red-hot SF offense.
Fantasy Advice: CLE has been slightly worse against the run, so I expect CMC to bounce back from his quiet week 5. For the Browns, Amari could have a strong outing in a negative game script, though he should be downgraded with Watson inactive.
Bonus Lock
TEN vs. BAL - BAL (-4.5)
The 3 massive favorites are the obvious locks of the week, but I wanted to offer another pick in case you needed a new option for Survivor. Even though BAL suffered a crushing defeat in PIT last week, I still view them as one of the league’s best teams, with a top 5 defense and a top 10 QB. I also expect this offense to bounce back in a major way after their embarrassing 7 drops last Sunday (3rd most since ‘13 according to TruMedia). Frequently riddled with injuries, BAL should also be close to full health, with only Odafe Oweh ruled out. For TEN, despite some impressive wins against CIN and LAC, they’re coming off a disappointing loss against IND and have failed to unleash Derrick Henry in ‘23 (career worst 3.8 YPC).
Upset of the Week
CHI vs. MIN - CHI (+3)
After I lost faith in this Bears team following their 0-4 start and a crushing collapse against DEN, Week 5 brought some new hope to Chicago. Justin Fields and DJ Moore dominated the Commanders with a 40-point outburst on Thursday night, which was Chicago’s most points scored since 2020. Fields should continue to roll at home in Week 6 against MIN’s bottom 10 passing defense. For MIN, they’ll be playing without superstar Justin Jefferson, and even their 2nd best WR Jordan Addison has been limited with an ankle injury this week. Although Chicago’s defense is nothing to write home about, they should have defensive starters Jaylen Johnson and Eddie Jackson back on Sunday. It’s always a bit dicey betting on the Bears, but they have a strong chance to pull out the upset in Week 6.
You can comment here with your thoughts, and post in my Start/Sit thread if you need last-minute lineup decisions. Good luck to everyone in Week 6!