Week 4 Locks
We look to rebound after a rough Week 3
Current Record: 10-2
Unfortunately, our undefeated run has come to an end. In a week full of upsets, the Cowboys and Jets suffered crushing defeats in Week 3. Although he helped secure the upset in Week 1, this is a great lesson to not bet on Zach Wilson. As for the Cowboys, it’s a good reminder that betting lines are sometimes slow to react to injury news. Beyond the Trevon Diggs injury, the DAL OL was in shambles last week, likely contributing to their poor redzone performance against ARI.
For Survivor, hopefully you went with our Chiefs lock of the week and enjoyed watching Taylor Swift celebrate in the stands. The only other positive from Week 3 is that we avoided 2 major upsets (BAL & JAX), landing on SEA as our 3rd lock.
Let’s aim to bounce back in Week 4.
3 Locks
Jets vs. Chiefs - Chiefs (-9)
Zach Wilson is currently last in the NFL in passing yards, completion %, and passer rating (min. 3 games played). The only reason he’s not also last in passing TDs is because of these incredible plays from Garrett Wilson (Week 1 & Week 2). Unsurprisingly, this poor QB play has translated into the worst offense in football, and in Week 4, the Jets face the league’s best QB. KC’s massive edge includes more than just Mahomes, as their defense has been humming lately as well. Since Chris Jones returned to the lineup in Week 2, they’ve given up only 19 points, including a garbage time TD to DJ Moore last week. The Chiefs are the lock of the week once again, and I’d be surprised if they didn’t easily cover against the Jets in MetLife.
Fantasy Advice: Based on game script, I would generally lean toward Garrett Wilson & Isaiah Pacheco; however, I wouldn’t confidently start any Jets pass catcher, and the Jets have a stout run defense. Instead, I expect the receiving backs (McKinnon, Breece Hall & Michael Carter) to be a bit more involved in this one.
Eagles vs. Commanders - Eagles (-9.5)
This is a rematch of the Week 10 Monday Night matchup from last year when the Commanders pulled off a major upset over the Eagles, ending their undefeated campaign. I consider it a lock that history will not repeat itself on Sunday. In Week 3, the Bills exposed Washington as arguably the weakest 2-0 team in the league with their 37-3 blowout victory. Although the Eagles haven’t been dominant through 3 weeks (borderline top 10 offense & defense), they remain undefeated and will be motivated to avenge their ‘22 loss. More importantly, PHI has a talent advantage over WAS at almost every position, with Brandon Thorn marking the PHI DL as the top DL/OL mismatch of Week 4. The Eagles should frequently pressure Howell, and if Week 3 is any indicator, he’ll struggle to live up to the challenge.
Fantasy Advice: If the Eagles establish a large lead, Gainwell might be leaned on to ice the game away as he did against TB. The most actionable advice here is to bench Brian Robinson, who saw his playing time dramatically reduced during the negative game script in Week 3. Antonio Gibson may benefit, though he’s a thin start given his limited production so far.
49ers vs. Cardinals - 49ers (-14)
Despite overcoming the Cowboys & a 12.5-point spread in Week 3, the Cardinals won’t be able to pull off another massive upset in Week 4. I’m not sleeping on this Cardinals team, but the 49ers might be playing the best football in the league. SF has a top-5 unit on both sides of the ball, and even if they’re without Deebo Samuel on Sunday (questionable with rib/knee injuries), they’ll likely have Aiyuk, Kittle, and McCaffrey to carry the load. For the Cardinals, their main strength has been on the ground, rushing for 469 yards through their first 3 games (6th in the league and the most for ARI through 3 games since 1988). However, the Niners have one of the best DLs in the league, allowing 53 rushing yards per game. Something has to give, and I expect it to be James Conner & Joshua Dobbs on Sunday.
Fantasy Advice: Christian McCaffrey will likely be the star again, but if the Niners cover, Elijah Mitchell could be more involved down the stretch. Mitchell is only featured in positive game scripts, and he saw a season-high 11 carries against the Giants in Week 3. In a negative game script, I like Hollywood Brown’s chances to produce for ARI.
Honorable Mention: I expect the Cowboys (-6) to bounce back at home against the Patriots on Sunday, but I’d need to see their OL healthy before viewing them as a lock. Tyron Smith has already been ruled out while Tyler Biadasz and Zack Martin are questionable for the game.
Upset of the Week
There are several tossups this week, with 9 games having a spread under 4 points. With that said, there’s 1 team that should be favored on Sunday:
Browns vs. Ravens - Ravens (+1)
The Browns have by far the best defense in the league, and that’s why Vegas favors them at home in this one. Through 3 games, CLE has given up an incredible 164 yards per game, 89 yards fewer than the 2nd best Bills. On Sunday, when TEN entered the redzone after an Elijah Moore fumble, CLE proceeded to allow -9 yards (as Robert Mays shows here). Through 3 games, CLE has allowed just 1 offensive touchdown (a 71-yard George Pickens TD) and 2 redzone trips on the season.
However, this defense has faced a banged-up Joe Burrow in a storm, Kenny Pickett, and Ryan Tannehill. On Sunday, Lamar Jackson comes to Cleveland, and he’s the best QB they’ve faced this year. While the Ravens lost to the Colts in Week 3, Lamar had another stellar outing, completing 71% of his passes and rushing for 100 yards & 2 TDs. BAL was missing 2 of their best linemen (Linderbaum & Staley), and they both have a chance to return in Week 4. Overall, this upset pick boils down to the Ravens having the edge at QB, as they’re the only underdog with such a dramatic QB advantage. The Deshaun Watson from 2017 is long gone, and although he isn’t Zach Wilson bad, he’s been at the bottom half of the league in almost every QB metric since he returned from suspension. Even without Bateman & OBJ on Sunday, I expect Lamar, Zay, and Andrews to pull out the upset for Baltimore in Week 4.
Good luck everyone, and please comment on the Week 4 Start/Sit thread if you have any fantasy questions ahead of Sunday’s games.